Research

Great Power
Competition

The central question of our time: can states with fundamentally opposed interests maintain sufficient restraint to avoid catastrophic conflict? Dr. Fella's research addresses this through deterrence, diplomacy, and the search for order — from nuclear stability to transatlantic relations and US foreign policy.

Research Focus

I

Nuclear Deterrence & Stability

How do nuclear weapons shape the behavior of great powers? Dr. Fella examines extended deterrence, nuclear sharing within NATO, entanglement risks between conventional and nuclear forces, and the increasingly complex three-way dynamic between the United States, Russia, and China. Special attention is paid to Germany's role in NATO's nuclear posture and the debate over European strategic autonomy.

II

Arms Control & Risk Reduction

The structured management of military competition through treaties and norms has collapsed. Dr. Fella analyzes what realistic risk-reduction and escalation management measures remain available when formal treaties are off the table — and under what conditions a revival of arms control dialogue becomes possible. His work with the Deep Cuts Commission develops concrete proposals for crisis stability between nuclear powers.

III

Transatlantic Relations

The transatlantic alliance is under its most severe stress since its founding. Dr. Fella examines what genuine European strategic autonomy would require in practice, how NATO cohesion can be maintained under conditions of US reorientation, and what the Trump administration's foreign policy means for European security — in the short and long term. He is one of the few analysts who engages credibly with both European and American conservative foreign policy communities.

IV

European Security Architecture

Russia's war against Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped the European security order. Dr. Fella examines NATO's eastern flank, European rearmament, and the difficult balance between deterrence and dialogue — including the question of how Europe can build more autonomous defense capabilities without fracturing alliance cohesion or provoking further instability.

V

US Foreign & Hemispheric Policy

American foreign policy under changing administrations has profound implications for global order. Dr. Fella tracks shifts in US strategic posture — from neoconservatism to America First — and their consequences for multilateralism, NATO, and arms control. He pays particular attention to the Republican Party and its orbit: the think tanks, media figures, and policy networks that shape US security policy from the inside.

Current Projects

Deep Cuts — Project & Commission

A trilateral research and transfer project coordinated by IFSH in partnership with the Arms Control Association, Washington D.C., funded by the German Federal Foreign Office. The project focuses on arms control, risk reduction, and escalation management in an era of eroding multilateral frameworks — moving beyond classical disarmament to develop practical measures for crisis stability and the prevention of unintended escalation between nuclear powers. Its institutional backbone, the Deep Cuts Commission, brings together senior experts from the United States, Russia, and Germany.

Ongoing · German Foreign Office

Deterrence in the Third Nuclear Age

The emerging tripartite nuclear environment — defined by US–Russian–Chinese rivalry, the weakening of extended deterrence guarantees, and growing entanglement risks between conventional and nuclear forces — raises fundamental questions about strategic stability. Dr. Fella examines what deterrence means under these conditions, what escalation pathways arise from conventional-nuclear entanglement, and what policy options remain available to European states.

Research · IFSH

US Politics

The United States
and World Order

American domestic politics and foreign policy are inseparable. Dr. Fella has tracked shifts in US strategic culture — from neoconservatism to America First — and their structural consequences for European security and the international order.

Neoconservatism & Decline

The idea of American decline has shaped neoconservative foreign policy thinking from the 1960s through the Iraq War and the first Trump presidency.

Trump, the GOP & Their Orbit

Dr. Fella closely tracks the Republican Party, its ideological transformation under Trump, and the broader conservative foreign policy ecosystem — think tanks, media figures, and political networks — that shape US security and arms control policy. Understanding this orbit is essential for European policymakers engaging with Washington.

Hemispheric Reassertion

From Venezuela to Greenland: the revival of Monroe Doctrine thinking in US foreign policy and its implications for the global order, international law, and transatlantic relations.

Approach

"Clarity through
calm analysis."

Dr. Fella knows how the game is played. He moves across the full spectrum of the security debate — from disarmament advocates to deterrence hawks — without being anchored to either side. His analytical trademark is calm precision and the willingness to draw clear conclusions where others hedge.

Principles

1 Clarity over comprehensiveness — a precise answer to a narrow question is more useful than a vague answer to a broad one.
2 Policy relevance — research should be translatable into concrete recommendations, even if those recommendations are uncomfortable.
3 Engagement across institutions — rigorous scholarship requires direct contact with the actors being studied: governments, military planners, diplomats, and civil society.
4 Public communication — complex strategic questions deserve accessible explanation. Analysis that cannot be communicated clearly has limited impact.