Biography

Tobias Fella

Dr. Tobias Fella is a political scientist and security analyst specializing in arms control, nuclear deterrence, and strategic stability under conditions of great power rivalry. He holds a PhD in political science from the Humboldt University of Berlin, where he researched the idea of American decline in neoconservative thinking, and a Magister Artium in political science, history, and law from the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.

His work sits at the intersection of rigorous academic research and applied policy — advising governments, contributing to international security commissions, and engaging directly with military and diplomatic institutions.

He is Project Director at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, a member of the CSIS Nuclear Network Mid-Career Cadre, and an alumnus of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, the Hertie School, and the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. In 2022, he prepared Bundeswehr units for their deployment in Lithuania as part of NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence, delivering ongoing lectures on the political, military, and economic dimensions of the war in Ukraine. His work is cited and featured by leading international outlets — from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Der Spiegel to The National Interest, Time Magazine, and Kommersant — reflecting a reach that spans Europe, North America, and Russia.

Based in Berlin, he writes independently on deterrence, diplomacy, and the architecture of international order in a multipolar world.

Curriculum Vitae

Professional Experience

since 2023

Project Director, Deterrence and Risk Reduction

Challenges to Deep Cuts, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg

2022–2023

Consultant, Defense Policy

Independent

2018–2020

Advisor, German and European Foreign, Security and Defense Policy

Friedrich Ebert Foundation

2016–2018

Project Coordinator and Research Fellow, Transatlantic Relations

Dahrendorf Forum, Hertie School and London School of Economics

2013–2016

Fellow, US Foreign and Security Policy

German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Secondment: Advisor, Foreign, Security and Defense Policy — Friedrich Ebert Foundation (2014–2015)

2013–2014

Study Group Director, Security Policy

Friedrich Ebert Foundation

Education

2020–2023

Dr. phil., Political Science, Magna cum laude

Humboldt University of Berlin. Dissertation: „Preventing Preemptive Superpower Suicide" – Neokonservative Logik und Amerikas Niedergang

2005–2011

Magister Artium, Political Science, History and Law

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Technical University of Darmstadt. Thesis: „Europa: Trittbrettfahrer der Pax Americana oder eigenständige Ordnungsmacht?"

Areas of Expertise

Great Power Relations

Strategic competition between the United States, Russia, and China — and its implications for European security, NATO, and the global order. US hemispheric and foreign policy under changing administrations.

Nuclear Deterrence

Extended deterrence, nuclear sharing arrangements, and the evolving logic of nuclear posture in Europe and Asia. Special focus on Germany's role in NATO's nuclear posture.

Arms Control

The erosion of multilateral arms control frameworks, prospects for renewed US–Russian–Chinese dialogue, and practical measures to reduce the risk of unintended escalation.